China’s export sector delivered a strong start to 2026 as the country’s trade surplus reached a record high in the combined January–February period. The latest customs data showed that exports significantly exceeded market expectations, highlighting the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy despite ongoing trade tensions with the United States.
According to official figures, China’s trade surplus climbed to $213.62 billion, well above economists’ expectations of $179.6 billion.
Exports Beat Forecasts
China’s exports increased 21.8% year-on-year during the first two months of 2026. Analysts had expected export growth of around 7.1%, making the actual performance far stronger than forecasts.
Meanwhile, imports also rose sharply by 19.8%, compared with the expected 6.3% growth. The strong import growth suggests stable domestic demand and rising industrial activity.
China usually combines January and February trade data to reduce distortions caused by the shifting Lunar New Year holiday, which can affect monthly trade figures.
Trade With the U.S. Declines
Despite the strong overall performance, trade between China and the United States declined significantly.
Trade with the U.S. fell 16.9% to 609.71 billion yuan ($88.22 billion) compared with the same period last year. The decline reflects the continuing impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions between the two countries.
However, China’s trade with other major partners showed strong growth.
Strong Growth in Trade With EU and ASEAN
China expanded its trade with several regions during the period.
- Trade with the European Union increased 19.9%, reaching 998.94 billion yuan.
- Trade with ASEAN countries rose 20.3%, reaching 1.24 trillion yuan.
These numbers indicate that China is strengthening trade relationships with regions outside the United States.
Inflation Shows Strong Recovery
China’s trade data comes shortly after a significant rise in consumer inflation.
The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% year-on-year in February, beating economists’ expectations of a 0.8% increase.
This increase followed a 0.2% rise in January and represents the strongest inflation rebound since early 2023.
Economists believe the extended Lunar New Year holiday contributed to stronger consumer spending, which supported inflation and economic activity.
Policy Signals From China’s “Two Sessions”
The latest economic data was released during China’s annual policy meetings known as the “Two Sessions.”
During the meeting, Premier Li Qiang announced a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026. This target represents the lowest growth range set by China since the early 1990s.
Analysts believe the strong export data may reduce the need for additional economic stimulus in the near term.
Impact of U.S.–China Trade Tensions
China’s trade performance continues to be influenced by tariffs and geopolitical tensions with the United States.
The trade dispute intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office in 2025, leading to multiple rounds of tariff adjustments between the two countries.
Although some tariffs were reduced following diplomatic discussions, several duties imposed under earlier trade laws remain in place.
As a result, the effective tariff rate on many Chinese exports to the United States remains close to 30%, according to industry estimates.
Conclusion
China’s strong export growth and record trade surplus demonstrate the resilience of its economy despite ongoing geopolitical and trade challenges. With expanding trade partnerships in Europe and Southeast Asia, China appears to be diversifying its global trade relationships.
However, continued tensions with the United States and global economic uncertainties may still influence the country’s trade outlook in the coming months.
